Financial Projections for a Pitch Deck
Investors accept uncertainty. What they don’t accept is certainty with nothing behind it. A projection built from drivers like accounts, contract value, conversion, sales capacity, churn and hiring can be questioned, and that is the point.
How do you make financial projections investors trust?
Build them from drivers: how many deals each channel produces, contract value, churn, sales capacity, hiring dates, salaries and gross margin. Then revenue, burn and runway follow from those inputs. Show a one-slide summary in the deck and share the full model in the data room, so investors can change the assumptions themselves.
What does a driver-based projection slide look like?
Which drivers should the model use?
| Driver | Assumption | Based on |
|---|---|---|
| Deals from partners | 31 a quarter | Last two quarters of partner referrals |
| Deals per sales rep | 15 a quarter after 4 months | Founder win rates, discounted for new reps |
| Average contract value | $12K rising to $14K | Current pricing plus add-on adoption |
| Monthly logo churn | 0.8% | Churn since launch, rounded up |
| Gross margin | 80% | Current hosting, model and support costs |
| Hiring plan | 5 hires over 18 months | Milestones on the ask slide |
| Salaries and tools | Market rates by role | Offers and quotes, not guesses |
| Non-dilutive funding | Tax credits in year 2 | Eligible R&D spending only |
How do you show burn and runway?
Show monthly net burn and the number of months the round lasts in the base and downside cases. Runway should reach past your milestones, as covered on the ask slide. Canadian founders can include non-dilutive funding where they qualify, such as the SR&ED tax incentive program and IRAP; see IRAP vs SR&ED. Include it only when eligibility is clear, and show it separately from revenue.
Show the drivers, not just the curve.
A projection investors can question is more credible than one they can only admire.
What makes investors distrust projections?
- A hockey stick with no drivers behind it.
- Growth that needs more sales capacity than the hiring plan provides.
- Churn of zero, or margins that improve with no explanation.
- Numbers that don’t match the metrics in the deck.
- Only one scenario, with no downside case.
Keep the model consistent with your metric definitions and the data room, and expect to defend each driver in investor questions.
Frequently asked questions
Do investors expect financial projections in a pitch deck?
At seed and later, a short summary is common. At pre-seed, a budget and milestones are often enough.
How many years should startup projections cover?
Most early models cover 18 to 36 months in detail; longer periods are rough at best.
What is a driver-based financial model?
A model where revenue and costs come from inputs like deals per channel, contract value, churn and hiring.
Should I show a hockey stick graph?
Not without the drivers behind it. Show the assumptions so investors can judge them.
Should I include a downside case?
Yes. A downside case shows you understand the risks and that the plan survives them.
Can I include SR&ED or IRAP in my projections?
If you are eligible, yes, shown separately from revenue and only for clearly eligible spending.
Where should the full financial model go?
In the data room, so investors can review and adjust the assumptions themselves.
Sources & further reading
Standards and platform rules change. These sources let you verify the current requirements directly. All screens shown are mock-ups of fictional products.